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International Relations Rants

July 15, 2008

BROKEN ARROW: AN AFTER ACTION REVIEW

Nine U.S. Soldiers were killed in battle; enemy losses are approximately 200 (unclear at this time). The historic ratio, at least since Somalia, has been 1 US Soldier dead for every 10 enemy killed. I don't now why, but that has been my general observation. So, reading the New York Times, what happened?


1. The FOB was positioned very close to historic hotspots (Kashmir, Peshawar, NWFTA)

See map.

2. Some commander, at some level, assumed risk. The FOB was not fully constructed (HESCOs make a huge difference). Here's an image inside FOB Some Random; even fully reinforced, they are tiny. But defensible, once fully constructed.

Size1-army.mil-2008-03-10-102344

American and Afghan forces started building the makeshift base just last week, and its defenses were not fully in place, one of the senior allied officials said. In some places, troops were using their vehicles as barriers against insurgents.

3. The enemy overran the observation post.

At the lightly fortified observation post nearby, American soldiers came under heavy fire from militants streaming through farmland under cover of darkness. Most of the American casualties took place there, a senior American military official said.

4. The enemy was going for a strategic win. An overrun US base would be like manna from heaven for them. They failed.

It was the first time insurgents had partly breached...
Translation: they died in the wire.

5. Airpower played a dual role

He said some local people might have joined the militants since a group of civilians were killed in American airstrikes on July 4 in the same area. “This made the people angry,” he said. “It was the same area. The airstrikes happened maybe one kilometer away from the base.”

Airpower is tactically wonderful but strategically imprecise.

American ground commanders immediately called in artillery and airstrikes from a B-1 bomber, as well as A-10 and F-15E attack planes. Apache helicopter gunships and a remotely piloted Predator aircraft fired Hellfire missiles at the insurgents, military officials said.



Errata:

a. June 2005 casualty spike? The tits up known as OP Red Wings.

b. I keep hearing we need to shift forces to Afghanistan. There are approximately 17,000 non-US NATO Soldiers in Iraq; the bulk of whom will not/can not fight. The Afghanistan 'Surge' (I hate that word) of US Troops is designed to fill the gap the bulk of those non-US NATO Troops currently occupy. 

c. The enemies rear areas are in an ungoverned frontier area. Just wanted to point that out.


June 20, 2008

GOOEY GEOPOLITICAL GOODNESS

Strangemaps looks at China: Airstrip III and some of the complexities the Chinese face from terrain. I wrote in response to one of my professors questions that the main threat to China was it being broken up and sold for spare parts on the nationalist market. I'm not sure how he took that.


Bottom line, the landscape of China ain't so flat and outside the heartland, hic sunt leonus:




Its size and its penchand for autarkism dictate China’s three main geopolitical objectives:

  • maintain unity of the Han heartland;
  • maintain control over the non-Han buffer zone;
  • deflect foreign encroachment on the Chinese coast.  

June 15, 2008

MY BOY MUQTADA: LET'S SEE HOW THIS GOES

Muqtada al Sadr, after defeating the combined armadas of the Americans, Iraqis and Great Kahn in a do or die battle over the planet Zebulon IV, got his as@ unceremoniously stomped back here in reality (specifically Basra and Sadr City).


So, from Iran, he's disbanding JAM and relying on the Special Groups (Iran Associated Militias) as a sort of Imperial Guard. JAM turned jelly will focus on the 'cultural' front.

Makes sense.

Look, I recognize four levels of analysis: the International System, the State, the Culture and the Family. You attack a level based on your perceived ability to win; it's similar to three dimensional chess they play on Star Trek. After getting rolled by the irresistible momentum of State sovereignty, Sadr (and his handlers) decided to shift levels downward.

Sadr announced his intent several months ago to level shift from attacking the State to launching an offensive against Culture. So now Sadr is operating, primarily, at the level of Culture (with harassing fire directed at the State level). He'll have to attack the Culture's Rule Set and detach the the population from the overlying State; that takes awhile, but it's a valid long term strategy (think Hezbollah).

The Iranians know how the game is played; one day, so will we.

June 08, 2008

THE SOFT SCIENCE CASE FOR SPACE

I keep noodling around about structures, agents and globalization. Sure, we're globalizing, or congealing, what have you. Some good and bad in all that.


What's unique is that for the first time, this wave of globalization has the opportunity to pull together the entire upper level of structure: the international system.  As we move towards a one size fits most uber culture, we loose out on fault tolerance. No more undiscovered countries.

So we have to make some: space. Structure outputs the discontents, and they have to go somewhere. Space adds a level of blessed anarchy above the international system (and don't bring up population: numbers are meaningless against ability and intent).

Currently the two serious spacefaring combines are the US and the EU (cash)/Russian (know how)/China (nationalism). In the short term (fifty years) the US will show a preference for moving bodies while the EU/Russians will want to move bots; that may change as they see the US achieve a comparative advantage. SEN McCain favors landing a man on Mars (or woman) while SEN Obama would prefer to slow down and build kindergarten schools, or something. 

These are all philosophical divides, and they're older and more influential than any current arguments.

Do we hide and caves and fear the night or do we grab a spear and go out and slay our demons. 

The past was a combination of both; I think the future will also be a combination of both.

Check back in fifty years and let me know if I'm right or wrong.

June 07, 2008

CHINA SYNDROME

Get your dose of reality over at the futurist:


A genuine superpower does not merely have military and political influence, but also must be at the top of the economic, scientific, and cultural pyramids.  Thus, the Soviet Union was only a partial superpower, and the most recent genuine superpower before the United States was the British Empire. 

The US has been about to be overcome since I was born and I suspect that will continue long after I gone.

June 05, 2008

LEARNING SOMETHING NEW: WINDFALL PROFITS

Suppose you have a product traded between X, the world producer, Y, the importer and Z, the consumer.


In a time of shortage (for whatever reason) X becomes a price setter, while Y and Z become the price takers. In order for Y to realize windfall profits, then the government, G, would have to impose tariffs or quotas on the movement of goods from X to Y. Y could then sell product above world prevailing prices to Z; in effect, windfall profits for an importer Y lies in tariffs/quotas that raise prices above world prices.

In the absence of quotas and tariffs, then windfall profits fall to X, world producer, and is represented by the cost inputs it takes to manufacture/dig up the product and what they can sell it on the world market.

I learn something new everyday.

June 01, 2008

CARLOS MENCIA MADE THIS SAME POINT...

...a few years back:
"But what good is it if you destroy one of your enemy’s buildings, and he destroys one of your countries? What good is it if you kill one of his people, and he kills a thousand of yours? . . . That, in short, is my evaluation of 9/11.”

---Dr. Fadl 

The New Yorker story A Rebellion Within makes for great reading. Discusses the breakdown of the intellectual underpinnings of Jihadism, Qaedaism, Radical Extremism, Agitating Agitators or whatever the hell this week's title is for a very old, predictable and transient phenomena.

Me, I'll just be happy to watch this iteration die; that way I can catch a breath, walk about for awhile, and wait for the phenomena to rise again in another ten, twenty odd years.

May 27, 2008

THE SIXTY QUADRILLION-BILLION DOLLAR WAR

Charlie Stross asks what we (the global "we", kemo sabe...) could have spent the money the US used to invade, stabilize and restore (ongoing) the sovereignty of Iraq. 

On the high side, he uses the figure of six trillion in indirect cost (the report he links is highly debatable). That's out of an estimated 60 trillion dollars the U.S. has thrown off in the past five or so years.

The real fun, though, begins in the comments.

(speaking of GDP, wow...the E.U.'s got bank, at least according to wiki.)

May 21, 2008

"COME LEONIDAS, LET US REASON TOGETHER": TALKING TO THE 'ENEMY'

So, Senators Obama and McCain walk into a bar…no wait, Senators Obama and McCain recently engaged in a dust up about talking to Iran, bad guys du jour (and they are. The mullahs suck). It is the whole “let us talk to the enemy” business.

Rephrased, the question is simple: ontology (world view), to merge or not to merge, to merge and how to merge? That is the question.  I’ve had to do some reading on Informational Ethics (don’t ask) and came across the work of Luciano Floridi; he’s basically a one man band in the field. But I like him; he uses ‘environ (shape) ment(mind)’ in the way it is supposed to be used…not as a stand in for trees, grass and other such errata. In his paper “Global Information Ethics: The Importance of Being Environmentally Earnest” (link to .pdf), he makes a most excellent point:

Agents can talk to each others only if they can partake to some degree in a shared ontology anchored to a common reality to which they can all refer.

Which is true.  The problem comes when mixing the peanut butter of your ontology with the chocolate of someone else’s ontology.  Floridi offers a solution when he argues for a base ontology:

The approach to be pursued seems rather to be along the lines of what IE proposes: respect for and tolerance towards diversity and pluralism and identification of a minimal common ontology, which does not try to be platform independent (i.e. absolute), but cross-platform (i.e. portable).

Which is what Obama, an Ontocentrist, earnestly believes is possible. McCain does not, at least not without some fundamental changes in the other guys OS. For Senator Obama to be right, there has to be a shared, minimum ontology with the Mullahs. Unfortunately, instead of enforcing the minimal ontology, as things stand, we default to a sort of cheap relativism in reaching towards, or making up, a shared ontology (with the result that a minimum standard of human rights/freedom being harder to reach when you keep reaching blindly in the dark for your shared ontology). McCain believes a shared ontology can be tried, but that it will not likely work absent the OS change.

Of course, Senators Obama and McCain are merely stand-ins for the basic philosophical differences/preferences we have.

Basically, people are binary; we fall into one or two categories (and yes there are always tertiary categories but those are stressed outliers).  Below, you see the two broad categories around which we organize our politics: the two basic ontologies into which you can objectively shoehorn all the adjectives (race, religion, sex, ethnicity…the boring stuff). While there are some crossovers, in the main, folks are going to either prefer agent promotion or structure promotion.

.Two broads












Agent promotion has a downside of anarchy and an upside of agent mobility and fault tolerance. Structure promotion has an upside of order and a downside of agent immobility and fault intolerance. Obviously, the sweet spot is somewhere in the middle. Both are ongoing traditions within Dar al Liberalism. 

Problem comes in when you trend towards too much structure promotion; you just set yourself up for a huge crash and burn. Structuralist recognize this; it’s why they tend to be ontologically imperialist (though Floridi would probably be aghast to hear me say that). Structuralism sheds ontological imperialism (colonialism, imperialism, communism, Nazism, jihadism, etc) like nobodies business. Basically, any structuralism has to expand; you cannot have someone out there making a lie of the necessity of your little reality (see East versus West Berlin). Also, structures tend to stave off collapse (and sustain local reality) through expansion: expansion equals more coin, more coin equals a longer lease on life. That is why Iran is regionally expansionist (coin, influence, local power) and Jihad (hard and soft) is globally expansionist. Both Persian and Arab ontologies are, at root, imperialist. But in the end, both are fault intolerant structures that will collapse; either over time or with a shove. 

Now, Senator Obama is more or less ontocentric. He’s reaching for that shared ontology Floridi talks about. Unfortunately, because oncentrism is reductive, it lacks the emotional appeal of ontoimperialists philosophies; which is why it gets rolled, time and time again.

Ontocentrism brings with it another factor: disdain for agent promoting ontologies. This is because, by necessity, ontocentrism must tend towards a structural solution. Ontocentrism seeks to devalue other ontologies and requires power (structure) in order to do so; ontocentrism and ontoimperialism are top driven models. To that extent, IMHO, ontocentrism and ontoimperialism are twinned: both initiate rootkit attacks on hostile ontologies. For the ontocentrist, that’s pretty much all; for the ontoimperialists, it’s generally ‘the other’.  Though motives differ, the effects are the same.

Back to Floridi; he is correct when he writes: 

Not only do we live in a world that is moving towards a common informational ontology, we also experience our environment and talk and make sense of our experiences in increasingly informational ways.


So the question is now designing the root OS or minimal shared ontologies. Look at the below illustration. In the end, agent promotion and structure promotion have some irreconcilable differences. Individualism versus collectivism cannot be reconciled (note, for example, how attacks on ‘white privilege’ are, at heart, attacks on individualism). As thing stands, the trend is towards a structural OS preference; mainly because structuralism, directorial or dictatorial, is easy.

Merge at macrod

Now I keep harping on macrodecisions, because that is what we are in; and it is important to realize that macrodecisions require compromise between powers before moving on to coalitioning. The compromise will occur between the two basic ontologies (above) and the results will be what we live with for the next X Number of years. We will approach a shared global ontology as Floridi predicts; the question then becomes, of the two broad philosophies, which one dominates: agent promotion or structure promotion?

In the end, the cynic in me bets on structure promotion. Again, it is the easiest. But structure, at all levels of analysis, leads to structuralism: a fault intolerant collapse that’s just best to avoid. We’ve never had a structure at the level of the international system; merely blessed anarchy. 

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

 


May 20, 2008

MICRONATIONS

I love the whole idea:

For instance, Lovely’s Minister of Defense is Wallace’s friend Jon Bond, who was once a security guard at Tesco.

A nation in every pot, by god!!

May 16, 2008

GREAT WAR OF CHINA DELAYED

SecDef Gates to DoD: um, fight this war(s) first. He's also starting to get some good advisers in and around him.

Nice.

ARMED CRIMINAL ENTERPRISES

It's what we call them in the biz. Foreign Policy has a nice roundup of the worst (surprisingly, they leave off quite a few masquerading as nation states):

Their darkest dealings often go unreported and unnoticed. But from Nairobi to São Paulo, many urban gangs are becoming more sophisticated, more brutal, and more powerful than ever.

via BB.

When you hear about these ACEs, make sure you keep Max Manwaring's piece handy: Street Gangs.

May 10, 2008

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS PODCASTS

Some pretty good ones out there:

UCLA Burkle Center

Global Voices

Council on Foreign Relations

Berkley Open University (neat course on American cyberculture)

UCTV Conversations with History

Rounding out with free foreign language podcasts from Open Culture.

If you stumble on this lists and know of more, shoot me an email or drop it in the comments.

KTHANXBAI.

May 09, 2008

ROLES AND MISSIONS

Dry topic, but important:

The one issue Congress told the Pentagon to study is whether there are unnecessary duplications of capabilities among and between the four services and other arms of the Pentagon. In addition, the officials told reporters that unmanned aircraft systems, intra-theater lift, cyber war, irregular warfare, Pentagon governance issues, and DoD's roles and missions in the interagency world.

Everyone back to their corners and start over: Sea, Ground and Aerospace (quit cybering for dollars).

May 08, 2008

IRAN: IT IS WHAT IT IS

Information Dissemination (via Instapundit) has a good roundup of preparations for war against Iran; preparations basically hiding in plain site:

I'm not big on conspiracy theories, not my style, but the coincidences of naval power availability and how obvious this has been unfolding for 8 months now is simply something observers like us can't ignore. We believe Stratfor is soon going to get an opportunity to test their theory, all signs point towards a time in the very near future where both nations will approach the edge of war. Lets hope Stratfor is correct in their analysis, and it is in that moment negotiations prevail.


Couple of things to add:

1. Looks like Sadr will be defeated in detail, probably by early summer and JAM Special Groups will lose its Iraqi "face".

2. Al Qaeda never really got of the ground in Mosul, and now, potentially, their leader of the day may have been captured. Not related to Iran (directly); but an important factor.

3. Hezbollah may have kicked over an ant hill in Lebanon. The state may reassert itself, there.

Iran is being rolled up on the ground; the loss of JAM SG and Hezbollah proxies will put them on the defensive.

As for negotiations? Well, I think that path, unfortunately, is dead. As I wrote in Probably, Definitely the release of the NIE about Iran's nuclear program (owing to our own bureaucratic politics and infighting) fatally damaged a diplomatic solution (I mean, come on, the french basically said "WTF, over" when the NIE was released).

If Hans Morgenthau was alive today, he'd probably remind us that you need both the carrot and the stick.

Too much reliance on carrot, and inevitably you will resort to stick.

It is what it is.

May 06, 2008

THE POLITICS OF IRONMAN

(The post someone has to be dumb enough to write/minor spoilers ahead)

Iron_man2

I caught Ironman over the weekend. excellent movie and a must see: funny with plenty of eye candy. Robert Downey Jr. nailed the part of Tony Stark (Robert has returned from the dead so many times I ceased to be amazed). Realistic revision of the "War on Terror" without directly ringing any of the narrative bells (Iraq War Wrong). Those American stamped bags of USAID rice that dude dies on in the beginning? All over the place (be proud, American taxpayer, over the amount of food you just give away).

Oh, and Leslie Bibb was way hotter than Gwyneth Paltrow.

News041207b

So, what did I hate? The Air Force. God I (metaphorically) hate the Air Force. Bunch of tossers. First off, what is Tony Stark doing driving around the Hindu Kush mountains with a bunch of Air force security in an unarmored M998 HUMMER. Meat wagon. Next, a four star Air force general is just hanging around Afghanistan? Gimme a break; you can barely squeeze a one star Air Lord into Afghanistan. The theatre is that small. Then there's this business of Lt Col Rhodes (not Col Rhodes as he was constantly referred to in the movie). So this guy directs air battles over Afghanistan with his pretty little F-22s (there is no air threat in Afghanistan, see, because we have F-22s. Sine qua non) all the while in driving distance of Tony Stark's Malibu mansion? Neat job if you can get it. There's even a part where Lt. Col Rhodes, trying to figure out what Iron Man asks "could it be the Air Force, the Navy or the Marines" (I paraphrase).

Throughout the movie I kept asking where is the Army?

Then it hit me: Ironman is the Army.

Some definitions. America is a liberal entrepot. Within Dar al Liberalism, we frame thing in terms of two competing thoughts: progressivism and conservatism. Those two strains actually deal with rate of change within Dar al Liberalism (conservatives slow/progressives fast). But you need another axis. While conservatism/progressivism describe the rate of change, Realist and Liberal/Utopian (to crib international relations theory) describe the amount of structure. Realist prefer more structure; Liberal/Utopians prefer less. So, when you take those two axis, you can template people against them and determine their actual political preferences. You can be a conservative liberal/utopian or a progressive realist, for example.

But the key variable is how you view structure; not the rate of change you desire.

I've made the point before in "Pulling up the drawbridge": the Army trends liberal/utopian while the Air Force trends realist. Realists love their gadgets; liberal/utopians tend to make due what what they have. Again, structural preferences. In warfighting terms, the Army prefers a knife fight while the Air Force prefers a sniper shot (decapitation strikes and shock and awe).

000085044pinupgirlarmyairforceposte

The Army represents the "down and dirty" of American political thought while the Air Force is the "quick and easy" aspect of American political thought (more toys, boys, and we'll be home before dinner). All this occurs with Dar al Liberalism; and you can find aspects of these two strains of thought within all political, social and cultural contexts. The Air Force and Army are merely the war fighting outputs of each school of thought. You can see this divide everywhere: the Artillery/Infantry divide within the Army, the Bomber/Fighter Jock divide in the Air Force and the Carrier/Sub divide in the Nay. It truly pains me to say this, but if you want a perfect fusion of realist and liberal/utopian thought and war fighting capabilities, you have to look at the United States Marine Corp (minus Logistics).

Ironman starts out with plenty of gadget p0rn. The Jericho Rocket for instance (please, we've got that; hook some cluster bombs to an MLRS, or even...). Tony Stark specializes in death at a distance. He's a cynical, playboy, realist, hanging around with Air Force gadget geeks. The Damascus conversion plot point turns him into a liberal/utopian: personally involved and more willing to put his life on the line.

So, the movie begins with everyone a happy little realists and ends with Tony Stark as the lone liberal/utopian: the Army. Even towards the end, you have the realist attempting to to reassert control (strucutre), but the lousy little liberal/utopian in Tony Stark escapes.

Tony Stark is the Ironman; and the Ironman is the Army.

2004072705b

(now get cracking, DARPA)

WHEN YOUR NEIGHBORS A NUT...

...then make a wall your new neighbor . Good posts and pictures from the Long War Journal about the recovery of the lower one third of Sadr City from the JAM Special Groups and other hanger ons.

Sadrcity127inf

As you'll recall, Sadrist were eliminated in Basra; they are being mopped up in Sadr City (lot more structure so the approach is a lot more surgical). Building the wall keeps the JAM and their cute little Iranian rockets away from the IZ (and allows for rule set reestablishment in the lower third of Sadr City. Revolutions are an illusion; rule set establishment/disestablishment is what occurs).

I'm constantly amazed how walls have gone up as rule sets have collapsed (West Bank, Saudi Arabia and I think there's one in Europe).

It's our old castle building instinct taking over: invest in concrete.


May 05, 2008

AFTER THE NATION STATE?

Awesome map of European regions.

Tabula2005

There's a strain of thought that blames the nation state for violence: it is the monopoly provider. But I think violence is what it is; absent the nation state, you get a sort of hyper regionalization (we used to call it the dark ages) with varying rule sets. By strengthening the upper structure and weakening the middle, I see this as a logical outcome.


May 02, 2008

GOVERNMENT GOOD: ASK OG

The website government is good. Wordily trying to push back the vast Right Wing Conspiracy (Lousy Republicans!!!) to eliminate all good in the world.

I recently had a great conversation with a decent fellow: lawyer, Soldier and Public Service Commissioner and Democrat (Lousy Democrats!!!). Largely, it was about light bulbs.

Bottom line, government can be a force for good. But, my belief is that government should tend to do less, vice tending to do more. Government, with its near monopoly on force, balances the system of our American Republic (note: we are not a democracy. Do you know how unstable those things are?).

At it's best, government, especially on the federal level, balances and corrects localized rule set disruptions (think the Civil Rights Movement). At it's worst, government continues to accrue rule sets that eventually become burdensome and contradictory. Ultimately, the growth of government leads to the collapse of government as it crowds out competitors and achieves an absolute monopoly on force.

If you like science fiction, and you should, remember how Frank Herbert described the Empire: "The Emperor and his Sardauker on one side and the Great Houses of the Landsraad on the other"? It's like that in America: Washington and Military on one side, and the Local (State, Community, National Guard, Militias, Private Citizens, Churches, Civic Groups, Advocacy Groups) on the other.

We are balancing a system; but we keep trying to reach for an endstate.

April 23, 2008

THE ROCK RISES

So General Petraeus gets kicked upstairs to CENTCOM and General "Odi" Odierno has his dwell time slashed to return as MNF-I Commander. I imagine that's pretty good; both of them have the one essential characteristic of any successful military leader:

They win.

March 29, 2008

SPEAKING OF ESCAPE VALVES

(ED NOTE: Wrote this a couple of days ago, but booking it for posterity)

“From a base in Basra, Senior British Military Representative Lieutenant Colonel Michael Shearer told TIME that the Iraqi operation is aimed at quelling criminal activity, and that the city has never been under the "control" of militant groups.”

Shut up.

If I hear one more time about the British/Northern Ireland model, I am going to hurl. The British (politically) surrendered and declared it a peace.

“We know the outcome of the fighting in advance because we already defeated the British in the streets of Basra and forced them to withdraw to their base,” Abu Iman told The Times.

Duh.

The government moves. A nation state has got to do two things:

1. Defend itself
2. Reproduce.

Right now, violence is a commodity in Iraq. Any yahoo with a track suit and an AK-47 can get in on the business. The barriers to entry are that low. The central government has got to become the monopoly provider of violence or they fail. Gidgets launching 107mm’s from the back of pickup trucks is, shall we say, unsustainable.

Most all the rest is window dressing.

JAM/SG/Iran LLC has had a going concern on violence in Basra and Sadr City. As a result, they’ve been able to extract rents form the port and oil lines; the rents help them expand their influence.

Outcomes:

COA 1 (unlikely): JAM/SG/Iran LLC prevails.

COA 2 (moderate likelihood): Maliki prevails; high cost.

COA 3 (unknown): The Sardaukars Coalition Forces intervene on behalf of their levies and end the JAM/SG/Iran LLC product line.

Should the cease-fire collapse entirely, those gains could be in serious jeopardy, making it far more difficult to begin bringing substantial numbers of American troops home.

Concerns about US troop withdrawal timelines: parochial and unworthy.

Navel gazing Green Zone reportage: amusing.


That’s my two and a half cents.

Whatever happens down there, it will be fascinating.

February 27, 2008

NEXT UP: PX PRIVILEGES

Iraqi Army moving to M-16s.

February 17, 2008

THE NEWLY INDEPENDENT DEPENDENCY OF KOSOVO

Kosovo, a protectorate of the EU/UN, is declaring 'independence'. Fascinating to watch a nation state, albeit a rump one like Serbia, dismembered. Man, there's going to be a ton of unintended consequences from this, within the next decade or so.

Don't get me wrong, the Serbs were dicks, last decade or so; it is the process of supra/transnational instruments making decisions over sovereign states that fascinates me. Plenty of precendents being set here.

That said, last time I was in Kosovo, they were dead broke. I don't think much has changed.

Welcome the newly Dependent Kosovo Thingy.

February 03, 2008

LONG LIVE THE REPUBLIC

France's new First Lady, Carla Bruni: bruni2.jpg

France's new Foreign Policy

03Cover-190.jpg

Like Sarkozy, Kouchner speaks of returning France to the heart of Europe and Europe to the heart of the Western alliance; but on Iraq he hasn’t made much headway among his fellow foreign ministers, or even his own colleagues. “They believe that I am an unguided missile,” he fumed. “They believe that I’m a foolish guy. ‘Why is this stupid Kouchner going to Iraq? We don’t care about Iraq!’ They are stupid. They don’t know that the core of the danger is there, in between Iraq and Iran, in between Lebanon and Syria. This is the common enemy, not only for Americans but for all democracies. And the common enemy is extremism.”

January 13, 2008

METO

n. 1. Middle East Treaty Organization

In remarks to the traveling press, delivered from the Third Army operation command center here, Bush said that negotiations were about to begin on a long-term strategic partnership with the Iraqi government modeled on the accords the United States has with Kuwait and many other countries.

Newsweek

1. I’ve been saying this since about three minutes past forever.
2. The Brigades never come home from Iraq (think Europe)
3. Remaining in Iraq has always been the Liberal (Unit Promoting) option; the United States is a Liberal foedus.
4. Beneath the noise, some sort of alliance has been building.
5. Still doesn’t settle the macrodecision on the brand of global integration; that is largely an argument between Players at the level of the International System.
6. Key Decision Point: will integration be unit promoting or will it be structure promoting?

January 09, 2008

Of Democratic Kings and Boutique Microstates

The coronation of Bhutto the Younger, through bloodline, and the micro state of Transnistria are linked to broader trends, in my mind. The structuralization of units.

While we are so battle focused on the Arab Middle East, there is so much more of interest and long term impact going on in the world.

The old labels are dead. Rebrand me some new labels.

January 02, 2008

Robb’s Odd

Government Inc. or Privatopia. Look forward to seeing how he develops this.

1. Brand Government has departed from its core business.
2. Structures are neither omnipotent nor omniscient.
3. When you depart from core businesses, your traditional products (Security, territorial integrity, public health) suffers.
4. Witness this bed bug business in New York. But hey, public smoking is down.

Resilience

Good to see Rudy thinking along these lines; specifically how to bolster Merka’s inherent resilience.

1. Structures are not resilient. Units are.
2. The approach should be towards Unit resilience. Thus Unit promotion.
3. Two series I’ve watched recently: Heroes and Jericho. Both deal with cataclysmic or near cataclysmic events.
4. I see this as evidence of the play element of society war gaming scenarios. Hunziger would be proud.

December 23, 2007

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Basically, neo-mercantilism. See this over at dinocrat.

In short, Nations are getting back into the field as corporate investors. China's an outlier (she generates wealth) and the ones that fascinate me are the resource extracting nations.

Already, their populations are superfluous to the the wealth creation process. At what point do they become a burden (by demanding more of the pie)?

With rumors of Putin's 40 billion dollar wealth, unfounded or not (live by 'perceptions/die by perceptions'), at what point does "the wealth of nations" become unmoored from the nations?

December 17, 2007

International Theory Class Over

Last paper submitted. Finished with a good grade. Next up, "International Political Economy".

December 11, 2007

Liberalism is a disease

And I hope to spread it :)

Look, here's my worldview in a nutshell: the domestic disputes we have in Dar al America are just that, domestic disagreements over how, not what.

Some background. I used to link to Brussels Journal. Figured it was a good way to keep up with Europe. Boy was I right. Unfortunately. There's been a little back and forth between LGF and BJ for quite awhile; largely over BJ's association with tribalist in good suits: Vlamm BangBang or some such and their strong racist overtones.

I'm fascinated by this comment that Charles Johnson fished out:

"..but I see liberalism - as a variant of socialism - as the most serious threat...I do not see myself as the beginning and end of everything, as individual that is, but as part of the circle of life. I find this to be an honourable position."

There is an entire worldview, one not easily reconcilable with liberalism, in that point of view (aside from the error of conflating socialism with liberalism). Europe will likely convulse again, in a way that's hard to predict. Simply my humble P.O.V.

These differences in worldview, while philosophical, have real world impacts. And it does come down to how you view yourself: simply are we means or are we ends.

As for me, better a peasant in the Kingdom of Ends, than a Lord in the Land of Means.

December 10, 2007

Notes from school

Have to write a peer review of a fellow student; we both came at Democratic Peace Theory from different angles. Thought it would be a good idea to pull up my notecards:

Picture_1


December 08, 2007

Quick IR Observation

Enjoyed listening to Tom Farer on Conversations with History (link to popup; link to source page). He discussed "Elements of a Liberal Grand Strategy."

Couple of critiques:

1. I listened through my iPod while on a treadmill. Not recommended; Mr. Farer's a bit of a low talker.

2. I think he pulled a bit of bait and switch, mixing his (domestically liberal) views with (internationally defined) liberal views.

Way I see it:


social democrat liberals--> realists-->communitarians.

laissez faire liberals-->liberal/utopian-->cosmopolitan.

I think is has to do with how you view structure.

Mr. Farer is definitely in the realist/neorealist camp.

I was going to double down and do IPE and International Law next term; but I think I better just stick with IPE. Both subjects make my head hurt.

December 06, 2007

Probably Definitely: A Step Closer To War

Unfortunate, but there it is.

“To be frank, we are more skeptical,” a senior official close to the[IAEA] agency said. “We don’t buy the American analysis 100 percent. We are not that generous with Iran.”
NYT, 2007

Look at the release of the NIE (link to .pdf). Now read this article in the WSJ. Then look at this piece in Opinion Journal BoTW.

There are two broad outlooks in US Foreign Policy, “hard (gun tooting death-beasts)” and “soft (peace loving hippies)”. Those approaches are blending, but aren’t there yet. The end product, in my estimation, are what some are calling “Smart Power (gun totting hippies)” and resemble something close to what Thomas P.M. Barnett advocates (drive security, then liberal economics, and then liberal governments [type agnostic] will out). AFRICOM is your proof of concept vehicle.

But as a smart man once paraphrased, you go to war with the politics you have, not the politics you want.

Power and Liberalism: Hard and Soft

Hard Power aligns with laissez-faire liberalism (internally) and liberal internationalism/imperialism (externally). The Hard Power advocates look at the Unit (state/individual) as the best level of analysis/influence. Hard liberals view peace as an outcome.

Soft Power aligns with social democratic liberalism (internally) and realism/neorealism (externally). The Soft Power advocates look at the Structure (state/individual) as the best level of analysis/influence. Soft Liberals view peace as a process.

You can trace all the chicken little-isms of the past few years (jihadis in tanks rolling down Main Street versus the decline and fall of the American Empire) to the current debate between Hard and Soft Liberalism. Really, it comes down to that.

Right now, there’s a debate going on; the subject is Iran and its nuclear program. Iran is in violation of international obligations, and has been for some time. There is a debate as to whether Iran is developing or able to develop nuclear weapons. Since about 2004 (despite selective amnesia) there has been a broad multilateral diplomatic (Soft Liberalism) effort to constrain Iran. Despite the NIE, there still remain many unknowns. Hard liberal advocates are beginning to make the case that those efforts extend beyond diplomacy and become coercive (the continuum ranges from strong sanctions to war).
This argument is taking place to satisfy the jus ad bellum requirement. It began this past summer.

In my view, the proper balance, especially for a benign hegemon, is Soft Power with a component of Hard Power (my view of Smart Power). Unfortunately, I believe what we often see practiced is Soft Power unmoored from any form of coercion. As a result, Hard Power alone becomes the default solution available to decision makers when Soft Power (without coercion) fails. Sometimes this is called war.

My critique is that Soft Power advocates have become so wedded to processes that they’ve become means and not ends oriented. By minimizing, publicly and loudly, Hard Power, they naturally usher in its use. (As an aside, don’t think Hard Power advocates prefer war; if you do, then you are, where’s my French Dictionary, outside your fucking minds. No one prefers war.)

Bureaucratic Politics

“Truman had unwittingly…..released the forces of bureaupolitical conflict, pitting factions within departments who favored radically different policy approaches against each other to produce a joint report for the president.”

I hope you read those two articles above. They began to confirm what was already a gut feeling. The NIE is a salvo in the jus ad bellum debate over Iran. The Soft Power advocates are attempting to preemptively constrain the Hard Power advocates. It has little to do with Iran, per se, and more to do with power and influence within the government, outside organizations, elites and mass perceptions. There are real stakes here within the hegemon.

The NIE will have major unintended consequences: it will unconstrain Iran and undermine Soft Power efforts currently extant. Hard Power will become the default position.

Just like in the Iraq debate, I predict the liberals will trump the realists, because, no matter the tactical victories, the hazily perceived strategic goals must still be met by decision makers on the international stage. When the Soft Power approach hits a dead end, decision makers will default to Hard Power.

Conclusion

I know, a little theory can be dangerous in the hands of a professional ranter, but three pogs to one, we go to war.

Eventually, you know, we’ll get to Smart Power, but it’s going to take years to get there, IMHO. The snow melts in the Antarctic; it just takes time to see the changes. The politics you have, and all that.

Unfortunate, but there it is.

December 03, 2007

Just In Time Education

Finished up a study last week of Graham Allison's take on three decision models: Rational Actor, Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics.

Then up pops this on the NY Times: U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

A bit of Bureaucratic Politics (actor gains influence by releasing information) describing Iran in terms of the rational actor model: “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs."

Interesting addition to the debate.

2008's gonna suck.

December 02, 2007

Up For Air

Finished my assignment, turned in the paper. The verdict? Writing is easy. Its writing well that's hard.

Next assignment:

Observe the Video Interview with Thomas P.M. Barnett, “The Pentagon’s New Map”

HYPERLINK "http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2394135666520306690&q=Conversations+with+History" http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2394135666520306690&q=Conversations+with+History

Go to the following site to see an image of the map from Barnett’s “The Pentagon’s New Map”

HYPERLINK "http://www.federalreview.com/uploaded_images/pentagons_new_map-767771.jpg" http://www.federalreview.com/uploaded_images/pentagons_new_map-767771.jpg

2. Post a well written essay in the “Discussion Board” on the following question.

According to Thomas P.M. Barnett, what effect is globalization having on military power and the U.S. military? Briefly summarize his theory and the evidence he presents to support it. Next, objectively evaluate his theory. To what extent do you agree or disagree with him? Explain your views.

I don't think I'll be plagiarizing Noah Schactman.

(got to keep a sense of humor)

November 18, 2007

The Venezuelan Petri Dish

“The comandante should have more power because he is the force behind our revolution,”

Because, you know, that always works out.

Chavez finishes squaring the triangle.

November 15, 2007

Random Quote Generator:

If 2007 was the year of security, 2008 will be “a year of reconstruction, a year of infrastructure repair and a year of — if there is going to be a surge — a year of the surge of the economy”, General Joseph Fil, the US commander in Baghdad, said last week.

November 05, 2007

Pulling up the drawbridge

Must be an institutional tick. Absolutely bizarre and rapidly aging piece by 'Sky Marshal' MG Dunlap, USAF:

Among other things, land forces can provide vital targeting information and also corral enemy forces into killing fields vulnerable to the air weapon. Ground forces employed in support of air campaigns can produce many synergies eminently in the interest of the nation. And, yes, the country also needs a large National Guard ground force for domestic emergencies and as a strategic reserve. To be clear, it is beyond question that America will always need a powerful ground component.

Interestingly enough, MG Dunlap casts the argument in Realist versus Liberal/Utopian with the Sky Marshals as Realists committed to power and interests and the the Grunts, like General Petreaus, as Liberal/Utopians committed to the maleability of human nature.


Hey, I should write that down.

Related: Global Spydrones

“Fatherland, Socialism or Death!”

Watching the rise of President Chavez and the collapse of Venezuela in real time is surreal.

New York Times Magazine

October 31, 2007

NYTIMES: U.S. Military Will Oversee Contractors

Another example of the DoD hiving out competencies from the DoS. This has nothing to do with conspiracies or such, but is just another example of a DoS adjusted for the Dar al Kant and unprepared for the Dar al Hobbes. Think AFRICOM. Key graph:

All State Department security convoys in Iraq will now fall under military control, the latest step taken by government officials to bring Blackwater Worldwide and other armed contractors under tighter supervision.

Related, Austin Bay on Muddy Boots Diplomacy.

October 27, 2007

Irredentism

Good discussion going on at my school regarding Huntington's 'Clash of Civilization'. Plenty of talk about 'Islam's Bloody Borders' and the immutable nature of civilizational conflict.

Pulled this map off wiki of China, and it's claimed areas:

754pxroc_administrative_and_claims

Lot's of potential for bloody borders, but only one real potential flashpoint (Taiwan).

Peace comes from privileging civilization over culture.

October 22, 2007

Managing Decline

Good article by Kaplan on the "navy in being," the whole idea about SLOC control supplanting ground based operations. Basically pulling up the draw bridge. You know, as long as we fight wars, the decisive engagements will occur on land. It's where people live. The Navy and Air Force represent wars we want to fight. The Marines and the Army are the wars we get stuck with. Life sucks.

Key quote:

To grasp what our military is up against, think of our defense bureaucracy as a great metropolitan newspaper, proud of its editorial oversight, accuracy, and formal English usage, yet besieged and occasionally humiliated by bloggers, whose usage is sloppy and whose fact-checking is weak, sometimes nonexistent. The paper soldiers on, winning awards and affecting the national debate, even as each half decade its opinion carries less weight.

My recommendation for a future navy (and air force, for that matter):

Picketboat

From the 83 things in my Rucksack: "10. Start small and say there."

October 21, 2007

The Future of the American Idea

Because I like p0rn, I finally got around to subscribing to the Atlantic. Boy was I in for a surprise.

They've got a seies going on the Meaning of the American Idea. In the preamble, the Atlantic describes its creation as:

The Atlantic was created in Boston by writers who saw themselves as the country’s intellectual leaders, and so its scope from the start was national, if rather theoretical.

The essays and pictures themselves are singularly depressing. Short version: American exceptionalism? Faggetaboutit. Their cognitive evolution has hit a dead end.

If this is what our epistemic communities think, minds well put gun to mouth and make the pain go away. Geez.

Example:

Istvanbanyai

Irony is, I'd take that trade. See that wee little flag up there? On the moon? That's where I'll be. Let the nutters take the rest.

Oh, and no p0rn. What a jip!

Speaking of the Bear

An actor seeking influence by other means. Russia and the Hackers:

The hackers go by names like ZOMBiE and the Hell Knights Crew, and they inhabit such a robust netherworld that Internet-security firms in places like Silicon Valley have had to acquire an expertise in Russian hacking culture half a world away. The security firms have not received much assistance from the Russian government, which seems to show little interest in a crackdown, as if officials privately take some pleasure in knowing that their compatriots are tormenting millions of people in the West.

Closely related, this analysis of the Storm Worm by John Robb:

What makes it special is that the Storm Worm's method of operation is sophisticated, so much so, that it is nearly immune to defense, suppression, or eradication -- demonstrated in that it has already infected up to 50 million computers and slaved them into a massive botnet.

Those crazy Russians.

October 15, 2007

Hither come the foederati

From the IHT, good line, simply put: "The bear was sleeping. Now the bear is awake and stomping his feet."

I am doing some world building along those lines, and a better line I've yet to write.