« November 2007 | Main | January 2008 »
I've spent the balance of my life single. Now, my wife and I are into our third year of marriage. She's getting back from a visit to her family in Latvia. I couldn't go; work commitments.
My cohort is all largely married, engaged and/or with kids.
On balance, good stuff.
Interesting development. Part of a broader trend:
A mountainside near the town was chosen as the home for the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, a "doomsday" seed bank that will store backup copies of as many as three million different crop varieties in case of a worldwide catastrophe.
Plans for Burt Rutan and Richard Branson to build on the success of Virgin Galactic.
Just a wikinub, right now. Look forward to see what happens in the short term (five or so years).
Good article on Security Voyeurism in Popular Mechanics.
1. Security is the opposite of resilience.
2. Leave enough structure lying around and someone will eventually use it.
3. An example of 'drawbridging'.
I've lived in enough to not be a big fan. Link.
Adding Low-tech Magazine to my rss reader.
Thoughts:
1. Going green is expensive.
2. Low (actually hidden) technology comes with some cost.
3. Those cost are expressible in the number of people you can support.
[ED NOTE: I pledge to spend the next and all future Christmasi at home]
Hip Hop as the new rock and roll (Barnett)
I can attest to that. As a young/aging black man, I've been asked to perform rap stylings in places as diverse as Cork, Hoedspruitt and West Rashid (where the youth flash 'westside' gang signs. Cute).
Unfortunately, I'm not very good.
Flipside: hip hop contains some very destructive elements. Elevates anger, disillusionment, grievances, etc. It's more a symptom of structural failure than a positive movement. My old neighborhood in Roxbury declined in inverse relation to the rise of hip hop.
Just saying, if you've got hip hop, you've got problems.
On the writing tip, it would be cool to name dictatorial characters "Grand Master Flash: Pimp Daddy for the People."
Can't find a link, but I heard on the radio about the scarcity of Christmas Trees due to a lack rise in demand in the Gulf States and China (hey, like oil). Might be anecdotal. But:
1. Worlds heading for a macrodecision.
2. Everything settles down (jihad gets trounced; US settles into middle east bases; EU 'project' continues along integrationists lines; etc).
3. You get a merging of structures.
4. Christmas is a rather ecumenical holiday: peace on earp, family, material well being etc.
5. Gets absorbed into the new structure, once macrodecision is reached.
END STATE: Family sits around the xmas tree singing hadiths to the workers paradise.
A one size fits all world. Not bad, but will require an escape valve.
Just in case, you know.
Good graphs, also. Kicking around using energy consumption instead of linear time as my calendar.
I live in a part of the world where bandwidth is pretty limited. As a minority (internet addict) I am hardest hit. What I get is expensive and my downloads are limited.
But, we all have to make choices.
Torrented "blue harvest". Man, I hope it's worth the cost.
And not the Ron Paul kind. Link.
My worldbuilding has Blimps and scramjets. Wave of the future. On blimps:
1. Security. Hard to use as a weapon. Easier to control.
2. Mass transportation.
3. Elegant for the Leisure Class.
4. Fits eco-environing.
5. No pirates (at least in the early years)
My first try of absinthe met all the cliches:
1. With my frat brothers. Check.
2. In Prague. Check.
3. Partying with some British girls on Holiday from University. Check.
I can confirm I did not lose my mind, an ear or become addicted.
Now it's legal again in the States.
It's not a childs drink, for sure. Like limoncello and uzo, you binge drink it at your peril.
Basically, neo-mercantilism. See this over at dinocrat.
In short, Nations are getting back into the field as corporate investors. China's an outlier (she generates wealth) and the ones that fascinate me are the resource extracting nations.
Already, their populations are superfluous to the the wealth creation process. At what point do they become a burden (by demanding more of the pie)?
With rumors of Putin's 40 billion dollar wealth, unfounded or not (live by 'perceptions/die by perceptions'), at what point does "the wealth of nations" become unmoored from the nations?
Last paper submitted. Finished with a good grade. Next up, "International Political Economy".
In the future, computers are forgotten: all that's left is magic:
To explain, Mr. Schmidt steps up to a white board. He draws a rectangle and rattles off a list of things that can be done in the Web-based cloud, and he notes that this list is expanding as Internet connection speeds become faster and Internet software improves. In a sliver of the rectangle, about 10 percent, he marks off what can’t be done in the cloud, like high-end graphics processing. So, in Google’s thinking, will 90 percent of computing eventually reside in the cloud?
Computing made noo (yes, that is a pun).
...is of minor historical importance"
Citizens for Intelligent Design*
This is where I'm heading with my little worldbuilding project. Synthetic biology featured prominently in the story I wrote for Medgadget's Contest.
From today's WAPO:
The cobbling together of life from synthetic DNA, scientists and philosophers agree, will be a watershed event, blurring the line between biological and artificial -- and forcing a rethinking of what it means for a thing to be alive.
It's all going to come down to units and structure
*C.I.D.s are the heavies in my worldbuilding.
From National Geographic:
Building Blocks of Life Formed on Early Mars
Saturn's Rings as Old as Solar System, Study Says
And that's just from the neighborhood watch.
This link on Thomas P.M. Barnett triggered a thought in my poor brain. He links to the Army's (and to be fair, Marines) embracing of COIN. Got me thinking about Barnett's advocacy for the Department of Everything Else.
I think we already have one.
Thesis: The DoD is transforming, by default into the DoEE. Six years of getting kicked in the head about this is having an effect on the organization that writing opinion pieces in the WAPO is not having on the DoS.
1. DoD is in the storming moving to norming phase of becoming the DoEE.
2. Embracing COIN of the part of the Ground Force gets them the Sys Admin role.
3. Air and Sea Lords get the Leviathan role.
4. The separation is not hard and fast. Lethal Ops will see a few Ground Forces forcing a entry supported by the Leviathan. As war is won, numbers shift; Leviathan draws down, Sys-Admin stands up. Ground Forces change the mixture of troops to task.
5. Natural fit. Air and Sea Lords are generally more realist; Ground Pounders tend to be liberal. The culture will fit to the two roles.
6. Non-lethal ops sees the Leviathan contributing boots to the Sys-Admin role.
7. World will remain a nasty place for awhile. I just don't see DoS and the rest of the Alphabet operating effectively alongside Hobbes. They get a seat in the MRAP/JLTV but they don't drive. They only dominate within the integrated Core. Again, culture.
8. Technology. The old shibboleth, but still operative. Man, it's coming faster than I would have ever thought. Who would have been thinking about exoskeletons six years ago or scramjets. On the drawing board, yes, but now getting dollars because, well, Sys-Admin and Leviathan are going to need some new clothes.
So your high intensity conflict starts looking like this:
And then scales down. Ends with the pinstripe suits setting up shop.
If you think about it,this thumbnail sketch describes the connection of Iraq. To the extent that model repeats itself is dependent on changes. Still a bunch of states (even extending to the Old Core) that will have 'issues'.
Of all the unknowns factors, boredom will not be one of them.
“Crack the earth open like a gourd and suck out its lifestuff” isn’t just a quaint saying Kids these days use.
Some actually think about how to accomplish the task:
It's all vaporware, of course. But as I recall, so was the idea of flight for the first ten thousand or so years.
Jodie Foster is gay. In other news, water is also wet.
Worthy of comment only to remark it's not worthy of comment. Cultural evolution has made this entire issue of in versus out moot. At least the higher up the strata you go. Eventually this effect pushes down and throughout.
Cultural evolution, which we are in the midst of, is values neutral. It just is.
Today I bought some Zune earbuds. To use with my iPod Nano. Turns out I wasn't suffering from low taklers; my iPod earbuds gave up the ghost.
They actually go well together. Both are black. If Zune and iPod can somehow find away around their differences, can’t we all?
/maudlin moment
I came late to Terry Pratchett, creator of the Discworld series of books. A fantastically imagined world if there ever was one. Going through the LoC exhibit below, I came across this early Islamic depiction of the Earth:
I immediately thought of the Great A'Tuin, which plays an important role in the cosmology of Discworld (link to worth1000 contest):
I'm saddened to hear about his condition, early onset Alzheimers, but heartened by his attitude.
Bic Pen reviews on Amazon. Example:
As far as writing goes, this pen is serviceable. Its lines are clean, its shape is simple and comfortable in the hand. In all respects it is a fine pen. As a weapon, however, it is seriously lacking. When confronted with a sword, the sword was, once again, the clear winner. It sheared straight through the plastic housing and emerged unscathed.
I have written to Bic and asked them to reinforce the pen's engineering, perhaps with some carbon-fiber technology, but have yet to receive a reply. Until then, the Proverb Evaluation Committee will have no other choice than to look elsewhere for its pens.
Nipped from Neil Gaiman's Journal
My 'toon is in a longer than anticipated hiatus, but I'm still drawing daily. And looking for tips and such.
Great site: Bigtimeattic (link to tips side)
I'm going to order this pen as soon as Dick Blicks restocks. Would love to visit a local store and just buy one, but as a card carrying Gomad (Global Nomad--try the other neologism) I do most of my shopping online.
I use the Faber Castell Pitt Pens, Black Brush, to draw; not ink, draw. I never got into sketching and it shows. I've been looking for a great brush pen since Sakura discontinued those double tipped jobbies awhile back. Hope this will do.
And I hope to spread it :)
Look, here's my worldview in a nutshell: the domestic disputes we have in Dar al America are just that, domestic disagreements over how, not what.
Some background. I used to link to Brussels Journal. Figured it was a good way to keep up with Europe. Boy was I right. Unfortunately. There's been a little back and forth between LGF and BJ for quite awhile; largely over BJ's association with tribalist in good suits: Vlamm BangBang or some such and their strong racist overtones.
I'm fascinated by this comment that Charles Johnson fished out:
"..but I see liberalism - as a variant of socialism - as the most serious threat...I do not see myself as the beginning and end of everything, as individual that is, but as part of the circle of life. I find this to be an honourable position."
There is an entire worldview, one not easily reconcilable with liberalism, in that point of view (aside from the error of conflating socialism with liberalism). Europe will likely convulse again, in a way that's hard to predict. Simply my humble P.O.V.
These differences in worldview, while philosophical, have real world impacts. And it does come down to how you view yourself: simply are we means or are we ends.
As for me, better a peasant in the Kingdom of Ends, than a Lord in the Land of Means.
Likely wrong; but worth a try and good start point for some ideas.
Just like the Kindle post.
Have to write a peer review of a fellow student; we both came at Democratic Peace Theory from different angles. Thought it would be a good idea to pull up my notecards:
Nextnature looks at some potential geoengineering over in Holland. They're the guys behind the island building in Dubai.
BTW, Nextnature is a great blog; fair warning, today's top post is moderately NSFW (nips without the pasties, and all)
I guess my concept of ‘smart power’ differs slightly from other advocates. Here’s the question:
1. Is ‘Smart Power’ merely a butched up Soft Power (Hey, girlfriend!!”) that talks tough but is just same old same old round heel negotiating?
2. Is ‘Smart Power’ a toning down of Hard Power (urgnnh!!) that leverages effectiveness, object orientation and goal completion?
Nye and Armitage tackle the question in the WAPO. Seems they lean towards option one; at least that’s my takeaway. Either way, I think we’ll be entering an era of Smart Power. Interesting to see which way it goes.
No, disappointing is when that cute girl in high school turns you down after you spent a week screwing up the courage to ask her out.
"The Golden Compass" cratered: "It's below expectations, but it's not an out-and-out debacle," said Dergarabedian
That said, I'll probably catch it on DVD, not for the anti-Catholic/religious subtext of the novel, but for the luscious Ms. Kidman and gorgeous backdrops.
Man, GC along with that other movie "Eating Lions With Lambs in the Valley of Eulah While Redacting Renditions of Tired Tripes" just goes to show the limits of environing.
I share Gizomdo's wonderment: Killbot video from Disney Imagineer.
Convrgence: coming soon to a world near you.
My fascination with all things Kucinich continues. I really think the dood is running for the President of Earth but, you know, timing error.
A very Kennedyesque pose with the misses.
Don't get me wrong, I think Representative Kucinich is kooky, but he appeals to my sense of humor. If the Presidency of the United States didn't matter, then I'd love to see Kucinich and Paul square off.
As it is, I'm still undecided.
I might vote for Romney, because I like that robotics have advanced far enouh to give us The Perfect Presidential Candidate. We had the technology, and we built him. Besides, I'm pretty sure Asimov's Three Laws will still apply.
Or, I'll be voting for Obama, because Oprah so loved the world that she gave her only begotten stem cell to clone The Most Compassionate Presidential Candidate.
This is for the 2012 election, right? Wake me up when it's done.
I love maps. I get the same electric feeling looking at an ancient map that I did as a kid, flipping through the Sears Catalogue (especially towards the back). Thanks to the Atlantic for this story on the Waldseemuller Map.
LoC entry.
Man, you could write a whole world, based on this thing. Love it.
Enjoyed listening to Tom Farer on Conversations with History (link to popup; link to source page). He discussed "Elements of a Liberal Grand Strategy."
Couple of critiques:
1. I listened through my iPod while on a treadmill. Not recommended; Mr. Farer's a bit of a low talker.
2. I think he pulled a bit of bait and switch, mixing his (domestically liberal) views with (internationally defined) liberal views.
Way I see it:
social democrat liberals--> realists-->communitarians.
laissez faire liberals-->liberal/utopian-->cosmopolitan.
I think is has to do with how you view structure.
Mr. Farer is definitely in the realist/neorealist camp.
I was going to double down and do IPE and International Law next term; but I think I better just stick with IPE. Both subjects make my head hurt.
I've always thought of Representative Kucinich as a bit kooky. Guess I was wrong. He's more of an opportunist. Still, a fascinating character study.
via LGF
Obligatory cheesecake:
I'm not a big gamer (Halo2 was the only game I've ever completed), but I like the look of Team Fortress 2.
A thousand bones is a lot of scratch to put down on an electric pen and paper combo.
Now a tablet, on the other hand...
Unfortunate, but there it is.
“To be frank, we are more skeptical,” a senior official close to the[IAEA] agency said. “We don’t buy the American analysis 100 percent. We are not that generous with Iran.”
NYT, 2007
Look at the release of the NIE (link to .pdf). Now read this article in the WSJ. Then look at this piece in Opinion Journal BoTW.
There are two broad outlooks in US Foreign Policy, “hard (gun tooting death-beasts)” and “soft (peace loving hippies)”. Those approaches are blending, but aren’t there yet. The end product, in my estimation, are what some are calling “Smart Power (gun totting hippies)” and resemble something close to what Thomas P.M. Barnett advocates (drive security, then liberal economics, and then liberal governments [type agnostic] will out). AFRICOM is your proof of concept vehicle.
But as a smart man once paraphrased, you go to war with the politics you have, not the politics you want.
Power and Liberalism: Hard and Soft
Hard Power aligns with laissez-faire liberalism (internally) and liberal internationalism/imperialism (externally). The Hard Power advocates look at the Unit (state/individual) as the best level of analysis/influence. Hard liberals view peace as an outcome.
Soft Power aligns with social democratic liberalism (internally) and realism/neorealism (externally). The Soft Power advocates look at the Structure (state/individual) as the best level of analysis/influence. Soft Liberals view peace as a process.
You can trace all the chicken little-isms of the past few years (jihadis in tanks rolling down Main Street versus the decline and fall of the American Empire) to the current debate between Hard and Soft Liberalism. Really, it comes down to that.
Right now, there’s a debate going on; the subject is Iran and its nuclear program. Iran is in violation of international obligations, and has been for some time. There is a debate as to whether Iran is developing or able to develop nuclear weapons. Since about 2004 (despite selective amnesia) there has been a broad multilateral diplomatic (Soft Liberalism) effort to constrain Iran. Despite the NIE, there still remain many unknowns. Hard liberal advocates are beginning to make the case that those efforts extend beyond diplomacy and become coercive (the continuum ranges from strong sanctions to war).
This argument is taking place to satisfy the jus ad bellum requirement. It began this past summer.
In my view, the proper balance, especially for a benign hegemon, is Soft Power with a component of Hard Power (my view of Smart Power). Unfortunately, I believe what we often see practiced is Soft Power unmoored from any form of coercion. As a result, Hard Power alone becomes the default solution available to decision makers when Soft Power (without coercion) fails. Sometimes this is called war.
My critique is that Soft Power advocates have become so wedded to processes that they’ve become means and not ends oriented. By minimizing, publicly and loudly, Hard Power, they naturally usher in its use. (As an aside, don’t think Hard Power advocates prefer war; if you do, then you are, where’s my French Dictionary, outside your fucking minds. No one prefers war.)
Bureaucratic Politics
“Truman had unwittingly…..released the forces of bureaupolitical conflict, pitting factions within departments who favored radically different policy approaches against each other to produce a joint report for the president.”
I hope you read those two articles above. They began to confirm what was already a gut feeling. The NIE is a salvo in the jus ad bellum debate over Iran. The Soft Power advocates are attempting to preemptively constrain the Hard Power advocates. It has little to do with Iran, per se, and more to do with power and influence within the government, outside organizations, elites and mass perceptions. There are real stakes here within the hegemon.
The NIE will have major unintended consequences: it will unconstrain Iran and undermine Soft Power efforts currently extant. Hard Power will become the default position.
Just like in the Iraq debate, I predict the liberals will trump the realists, because, no matter the tactical victories, the hazily perceived strategic goals must still be met by decision makers on the international stage. When the Soft Power approach hits a dead end, decision makers will default to Hard Power.
Conclusion
I know, a little theory can be dangerous in the hands of a professional ranter, but three pogs to one, we go to war.
Eventually, you know, we’ll get to Smart Power, but it’s going to take years to get there, IMHO. The snow melts in the Antarctic; it just takes time to see the changes. The politics you have, and all that.
Unfortunate, but there it is.
Yeah, I know I said I'd stop blogging about Kindle. I lied.
Look, I need my number of gadgets to approach one. For reasons of convenience, budget and philosophical outlook.
Convenience: I already carry a cell phone, camera, iPod, notebook, occasional laptop and three sticks of chewing gum. I can't add to that, I need to subtract.
Budget: I believe that in Glenn Reynold's basement, under a pile of discarded Amazon wrappings, our future cybernetic overlord is busy stitching itself together out discarded gadgets. I can neither afford nor store that much stuff.
Philosophical: I only own what I can carry at a dead run.
Kindle Killer.
It's in the realm of the rumor, but it gets stronger everyday or so: the apple tablet.
Here's coverflow, looking at my .pdf folder.
That's how I need to organize and read my books, .pdfs etc. Apple pushes a tablet, I've got a microputer and an ebook reader. Hell, double the price of the tablet and I'm in; I don't really need the iphone.
I need something cargo pocket small, touch enabled and pen ready (so I can draw).
Do this, Steve Jobs, and we'll be BFF.
I know there are doubters, but there's a market for microputing on the fly trust me:
"Being right is not zero-sum game."
When the class becomes available, I'm going to register. Until then, some cool retro images from DRB:
Glad we missed that future.
At home, the entrenched bureaucracies and diffuse legislative processes of the U.S. government make it hard to creatively, swiftly and proactively handle security threats. Turf-conscious subcommittees in Congress inhibit the country's ability to mobilize government agencies to tackle new challenges. For example, U.S. efforts to build up the police and military capacity of partner nations such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan to fight al-Qaeda and other extremists have been thwarted over the past six-plus years by compartmentalized budgets, outdated restrictions and budget cycles that force a nation at war to spend three years to develop, approve and execute a program.
At least to Max Weber.
...what they were getting into'' (Bloomberg).
Usually the case. Some talk going around about the potential $33 billion dollars some nations may owe for not meeting their Kyoto Protocol targets.
O.K., the article is pretty clear about who pays, but who gets the sweet, sweet cash? I read the protocol and can't figure that out. Whoever it is, they might just have hit a goldmine.
I am intrigued by the advances in robotic technology, especially the killbot variants. I wonder to what extent a mature robo-industrial complex would allow us to withdraw from the realm.
Just kicking around themes.
